Winning patterns and predictive modeling in FIFA World Cup 2022: Analysis of spatial, temporal, goal-scoring trends, and tactical indicators

Abstract

Despite the increasing use of performance analytics in football, few studies have integrated spatial duel patterns with situational and technical indicators when examining match outcomes. This study analyzed all 48 groupstage matches of the FIFA World Cup 2022, comprising 96 team performances. Key variables included duel patterns by pitch zone, ball possession, passing, defensive pressure, ball progression, and goal-related indicators. Winning teams scored significantly more goals (p < 0.001), produced more shots (attempts) on target (p = 0.002), and completed more ball progressions with borderline statistical significance (p = 0.050) than drawing or losing teams, whereas total possession and most defensive indicators did not differ significantly by outcome. Duel patterns showed strong negative correlations between duels in the defensive and middle thirds and ball possession (rₛ = −0.793 to −0.532, p ≤ 0.001), while duels in the inner attacking third were positively associated with possession (rₛ = 0.220, p ≤ 0.05). No significant associations were found between duel location and goals scored. Additionally, 64.2% of goals were scored in the second half, with the highest proportion occurring in the final 15 minutes, and scoring the first goal was significantly associated with winning (p ≤ 0.001). A binomial logistic regression model identified shots (attempts) on target, received shots (attempts) on target, second balls, ball progressions, total blocks, and possession percentage as significant predictors of match outcome (win vs. draw/loss). The model achieved 82.3% accuracy and excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.909). These findings suggest that success in elite international football may be determined by a multifactorial interaction of offensive efficiency, territorial progression, spatial duel distribution, and key situational factors such as scoring first and goal timing.